How Predict Points While Betting Totals in Basketball
When betting on basketball totals, also known as over/unders, one of the key factors to consider is the pace and efficiency of the teams involved. The total number of possessions in a game dictates the number of scoring opportunities, while efficiency metrics like points per possession reveal how well teams convert those opportunities into points. By analyzing these team and matchup-specific factors, skilled sports bettors can more accurately predict whether a game will be high or low scoring compared to the posted total.
How Pace Impacts Scoring
Pace refers to the number of possessions per 40 minutes for a team. The higher the pace, the more up-and-down the game typically is. Teams like the Golden State Warriors that play an uptempo style average around 100 possessions per game, while slower teams like the Chicago Bulls average fewer than 95.
More possessions equal more field goal attempts and trips to the free throw line. So when two fast-paced teams meet, the likelihood of a high-scoring game increases compared to when two slower-paced teams match up. It is essential to understand for AlfaBet bettors.
Impact of Possessions on Scoring
|
Pace |
Possessions |
Expected Points |
|
Fast (100) |
200 |
~190 |
|
Slow (92) |
184 |
~175 |
Efficiency’s Role in Scoring
While pace controls scoring opportunities, a team’s efficiency determines how many of those opportunities they convert into points.
Offensive efficiency measures how many points a team scores per 100 possessions, while defensive efficiency shows how many points they allow over the same number of possessions. The difference between the two gives a net efficiency rating.
Teams with a higher offensive efficiency have greater scoring ability per possession. So even against slower-paced opponents, an efficient offense can push games over the total.
Conversely, teams like the Memphis Grizzlies, with a strong defense and below-average offense, tend to play more low-scoring games on average. Their slower pace limits possessions and their poor shooting leads to missed scoring chances.
Efficiency Impact on Totals
|
Team |
Offensive Efficiency |
Defensive Efficiency |
Total |
|
Team A |
115 |
105 |
~220 |
|
Team B |
105 |
115 |
~195 |
Expected Points: Around 207
With all else equal, a massive efficiency advantage or disadvantage of 10 points or more for one team can swing a total by 10 or more points. As a result, betting overs is wise when an efficient offense faces a porous defense and unders have value when an inefficient offense meets a dominant defense.
More Predictive Metrics for Totals
While pace and efficiency provide a simple baseline for evaluating overs and unders, some more advanced analytics offer additional insight.
Expected Possessions
Rather than using a team’s season-long pace average, game-specific expected possessions statistics better account for matchup dynamics. Certain teams may speed up or slow down the game to a greater degree when they face each other.
Tracking these deviations can reveal extra value on overs and unders when the pace projection differs from common public perception.
Shot Selection Factors
Looking at each team’s shot diet - the frequency of shots they take by type and location - can help predict scoring margins.
For example, does one team take far more efficient shots near the basket or three-pointers? Do they shoot many low-percentage mid-range jumpers? This intelligence, combined with shooting percentages by area, assists over/under predictions.
Defensive Pressure
Some defensive teams force turnovers and tough shot attempts at a much higher rate through relentless on-ball pressure. Analyzing the defensive pressure and matchup data can uncover extra confidence in unders when one or both teams face intense defenses.
Conversely, porous defenses offer hidden value on overs in certain spots by allowing better shooting opportunities.
By incorporating these critical factors, advantage bettors can find an edge predicting basketball totals that the casual fan may miss.
Key Takeaways
- Pace controls number of possessions and ultimately shot attempts
- Efficient offenses score more points per possession
- Inefficient offenses paired with stingy defenses produce lower totals
- Advanced data like expected pace, shooting tenancy and defensive pressure provides additional predictive insight
Thinking critically beyond the over/under number itself and analyzing key inputs like pace and efficiency is crucial to beating basketball totals. While game outcomes rely heavily on chance, winning sports bettors use informed data models rather than guesses.
